Estimate Time to Win (ETTW)

This tool is designed to help Chia farmers gain insight into their expected time to win a block reward based on their current farm size. By entering your farm size in TiB, the estimator will calculate the approximate time frame in which you can expect to win a block. Always remember that winning a block in Chia is a random process, and the ETTW is an estimate, not a guarantee, of when you might win a block reward.

Farm Configuration
TB
EiB

Did you know?
Gambler's Fallacy

The chance to win a block in Chia farming is independent of previous events. This means your estimated time to win remains the same regardless of how long it has been since you've last won. Consider joining a pool to smooth out earnings instead of leaving it up to luck!

Probability of Winning a Block within N days

Another way to interpret this chart: For an ETTW of 47 days, there is a 99% probability of winning a block within 219 days. This also means if there are 100 farmers each with an ETTW of 47 days, then on average you could expect one of those farmers to not win a block for 219 days. Hope that unlucky farmer isn't you!